JSPES, Vol. 28, No. 4 (Winter 2003 )
pp. 487-496

China - Emerging Hegemony: A Speculative Essay

Seymour Itzkoff

The author argues that China, considering its geo-political situation, its extensive control over the water resources of south and southeast Asia, and relatively high intelligence and educability of its population will emerge as the dominant world power by the middle of the 21st Century. An important dimension of its international influence will derive from the fact that as a nation with a population estimated to approach possibly 1.8 billion, its highly educable and hardworking people will be able to out-produce the rest of the world at salaries unacceptable to the West. The author suggests that its power will create a new Asian hegemonic association of states, possibly including even Korea and Japan. Only internal instability can prevent it from attaining world dominance by the late 21st century.